Hypothetical Trading Outcomes Simulator: a practical guide
How different could the made-up outcomes be?
Try 2,000 made-up sequences of gaining and losing days. Compare the range, not just the middle result; these are not market predictions.
By VolatileShares · Example version 1 · Updated . Hypothetical inputs, not financial recommendations or live company data.
A worked example, in plain English
The idea in 10 seconds: Shuffle made-up winning and losing days 2,000 times and compare the endings.
This fixed-seed example uses 2,000 made-up paths. Its percentages describe those paths, not market probabilities. The interactive tool generates a new result only when you explicitly ask it to.
One average cannot tell the whole story.
These are invented paths. The middle result and sample percentages do not predict your future.
- Median ending balance
- $1,714.30
- 5th-percentile ending balance
- $1,356.30
- 95th-percentile ending balance
- $2,128.09
Walk me through the full calculation
In 2,000 synthetic paths using your assumptions and seed 42, the middle ending balance is $1,714.30. The 5th and 95th percentiles are $1,356.30 and $2,128.09; these are sample positions, not a confidence interval for your future balance.
3% of examples finish at or above $2,200.00, while 16.2% touch it at least once. The median of the paths' worst drawdowns is 21.8%. Winners and losers are independent binary draws, with identical account returns and percentage costs. Real markets can have clustered losses and changing volatility. Try a different seed or harsher losses; no generated path is a prediction.
A sample frequency is not a real-world success probability. Touching a goal during a path does not mean finishing there. Percentiles interpolate the sorted sample.
Inputs used for this example
These are the calculator's example defaults, not suggested amounts or rates. Market calculators initially display USD. Change currency in the toolbar without creating a personal profile. Under optional Location & display settings, choose an example country for its currency and available historical CPI. Review any example household size and rent assumption before explicitly applying local assumptions: matching unedited budget/inflation fields change, while edited or restored inputs are kept. Lifestyle budgets are fictional examples, not measured national averages. Local tax, pension and borrowing links are guidance, not personal calculations. Switching currency alone does not change percentages, ages or share counts.
- Money you start with (USD)
- 2,000
- Money you want to reach (USD)
- 2,200
- Days you plan to trade
- 252
- Days that finish with a gain (%)
- 55
- Account gain on a good day (%)
- 0.8
- Account loss on a bad day (%)
- 1
- Daily account costs (%)
- 0.05
- Example set number (seed)
- 42
Work backwards from your goal
What starting balance gives this middle result in the sample?
Start with a desired middle ending balance. Keep the seed unchanged for the same examples.
Choose Work backwards, enter your target and the few essential inputs, then choose Calculate my goal. The answer is checked with the same forward calculation and applied in one step. Example assumptions are disclosed under More options. Expand Calculation details & tools only if you want more detail. Impossible or out-of-range goals show an error instead of invented numbers. Long numbers display commas while editing; calculations and saved snapshots keep the original precision.
Reuses your seed and the same 2,000 made-up paths. A sample median is not a real-world probability, forecast or promised balance.
Return to the interactive calculator above →How the calculation works
Each independent session is a win if a seeded uniform draw is below the entered win fraction. Apply the chosen whole-account win/loss factor, then percentage costs. Report ending-balance percentiles, final-goal frequency and each path's largest peak-to-trough loss.
What this cannot tell you
Synthetic independent, identical binary returns, not historical data, a forecast or a probability of real-world success. Costs are a percentage of the whole account per session. No deposits, taxes, changing volatility or serial dependence. Same inputs and seed reproduce the same 2,000 paths; changing the seed creates a different illustrative sample.
Changing an assumption changes the example, not the future. Verify source dates and actual product, tax and lending terms before relying on any result. These tools do not replace appropriately qualified advice.
Touching a goal and finishing there are different
A path from $100 to $110 and back to $99 touches a $105 goal but finishes below it. The sandbox reports these two sample frequencies separately; neither is a real-world probability of success.
Illustrative arithmetic, not market evidence or a promise of returns.
Keep a useful starting point
In the interactive calculator, compare different assumptions or explicitly save a named snapshot to My browser notebook. Saving is optional and browser-only, not an account or cloud backup. Revisit it on the same browser profile; restoring never refreshes prices or assumptions.